By: Jonathan Goldberg & John Botha

South Africa’s motor-manufacturing industry, responsible for nearly five percent of GDP and more than 100 000 jobs, is once again flirting with crisis. Wage talks between NUMSA and the Automobile Manufacturers Employers Organisation (AMEO) have deadlocked, reviving fears of a nationwide strike at plants including Toyota SA, BMW, Ford SA and Mercedes-Benz.

A System Under Strain

NUMSA is demanding a 9 percent increase in year one and 8 percent in each of the following two years, plus a R20 000 bonus and higher medical-aid contributions. Employers, citing declining export orders and tight margins, are offering 7 percent then about 5 percent annually. The stalemate comes amid rising operational costs, port inefficiencies and power constraints that already cut production targets by more than 10 percent in 2024.

“Labour unrest has become a symptom of deeper structural issues,” says Jonathan Goldberg, Executive Chairperson of Global Business Solutions. “Manufacturers are fighting on multiple fronts -currency volatility, automation costs, import competition- yet wage inflation continues to outpace productivity growth.”

Lessons from Kariega

The closure of Goodyear’s Kariega plant, which cost nearly 900 jobs, shows what happens when competitiveness erodes. Cheap imports from Asia and inadequate industrial protection made continued production unsustainable. NUMSA’s outcry over the shutdown highlights a shared problem: both business and labour lose when the ecosystem collapses.

“Goodyear’s exit is a red light,” warns John Botha, Joint CEO of Global Business Solutions. “If we don’t stabilise labour relations and align wages with productivity, we risk a domino effect of plant closures across the automotive value chain.”

The VUCA Factor

Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, the defining features of today’s economy, are reshaping industrial relations. Energy disruption, fluctuating demand, automation and political transition make long-term planning nearly impossible. Employers and unions alike are negotiating in the dark, each trying to secure survival in an unpredictable environment.

To navigate this, Botha argues, employers need “smarter collective-bargaining models that include scenario planning, skills redevelopment, and transparent financial disclosure, not adversarial posturing.”

From Conflict to Collaboration

Beyond wages, the auto sector must confront how to remain viable in a low-growth economy. Investment incentives, infrastructure reliability and export logistics are as vital to worker security as the next pay increase. Government, labour and business all have a stake in ensuring South Africa stays on the global automotive map.

“South Africa cannot afford another prolonged strike,” Goldberg cautions. “Each shutdown sends a message to international investors that our supply chains are unstable. Restoring confidence requires leadership on both sides, and the courage to compromise.”

The Bottom Line

The looming strike is more than a wage dispute; it’s a stress test of South Africa’s ability to manage complexity in a VUCA world. If the parties can transform confrontation into collaboration, the sector could emerge leaner, smarter and more resilient. If not, the closure in Kariega may be only the first chapter of a larger industrial retreat.